Baiyun Mountain financial analysis and quantitative valuation

2022-04-24 0 By

I haven’t written an article on analysis for a long time. I have been lazy and cool all the time. After all, I finished building positions at the beginning of the year, and I have no extra funds to do other companies, so the renewal of power is still…Ahem, now let’s get down to business.Today’s article mainly discusses the financial data of Baiyun Mountain, and combines the data to see the operation of the company. The process may be a little boring.Before looking at the results, I usually open the software is simple to understand the basic situation of a company, after looking at the data of baiyun mountain, to be honest, my interest is not big, but the results of baiyun mountain is feast for the eyes and said, I am not pleasing to the financial data of how bright eye, but very clear and straightforward, cause I can’t help but see a few eye,Thus came today’s article.A liquidity, capital structure and the analysis on capital structure, first in 18 years ago, baiyun mountain equity capital ratio over 99%, which means the company more than 99% of the source of funds comes from shareholders, no debt pressure, but at the time of 18 years, interest-bearing debt ratio rose to 22%, the reason is borrow money to buy the wang ji and guangzhou pharmaceutical company,To be honest, these two acquisitions did not generate much growth. Growth was only moderate.From the perspective of liquidity, net value of baiyun mountain long-term financing is positive, that is to say, every year there are many out of more than $one hundred of long-term capital for short-term use, daily turnover of funds is long-term capital basic, almost no liquidity risk, financial sounder, shows that after the acquisition of the two companies, not to the company to bring greater pressure.Second, the gross margin analysis of baiyun mountain profit margins at around 20%, is low in the industry, and also a downward trend in recent years, 21 years and better, should be able to return to 20%, baiyun mountain business can hold up the bulk of profits is wang ji, Mr And some commonly used medicines, drag a profit down the business, commercial circulation gross margin is low, only a single digits,But as a pharmaceutical enterprise, I think this business is also indispensable.The comprehensive analysis of the three, operational efficiency and shareholder returns in 18 years after finishing the acquisition of the two companies, the baiyun mountain return on equity (roe) has large improvement, but a few years later a downward trend, roe is one of the core indicators of company profits, the weaker indicators need to pay more attention, so what is the cause of the baiyun mountain roe reduce?There are two main aspects, one is the decline of gross margin, the other is the decline of asset utilization.Gross margin is lower and the industry has a relationship, this don’t do too much to discuss, asset utilization of decline was mainly affected by 20 years of the new champions, resulting in a decline in operating income, at the same time the company also began a new expansion, the above two points lead to a drop in asset utilization, but if put in the long run, the time the influence of the outbreak of smooth,The roe of the company is likely to rise in the future.The cash self-sufficiency rate of Baiyun Mountain is still good. The company can earn money through its own operations to meet the expansion demand, without external financing, indicating that the company’s cash flow is abundant. The sharp decline in 20 years is affected by the epidemic, and the payment collection is a little late, which is a temporary impact.Five, the comprehensive analysis of comprehensive I haven’t written writing and various factors, operation of baiyun mountain is very stable, there is no risk, and holds wang ji and Mr Brands, have played an important role in pressure CangShi on a company’s growth, but because of the less profitable retail business circulation, the growth of the company as a whole can only say that the compasses.Vi. Valuation Through preliminary estimation, the debt cost of capital ratio is 4.45%, the equity cost of capital ratio is 9% for individuals (the risk-free interest rate plus 4-6 points of premium), the equity proportion in the capital structure is expected to be 80%, the debt proportion is expected to be 20%, the income tax is expected to be 20%, and the weighted average cost of capital ratio is 7.92%.The most difficult part of valuation is to judge its future growth rate, which depends on personal perception. Here I use the zero-growth model for valuation.Free cash flow based on 480 million is obtained as follows:The value of the company for the financial assets value + + of the long-term equity investment management assets value = 83.0869 billion to remove the company debt 9.6018 billion, rights and interests of minority shareholders, get the stock value of 68.12794 billion a total of 1.62579 billion shares stock price $41 here I don’t consider the margin of safety is on sale,As the conservative zero growth model is adopted in this valuation, the company will definitely grow in the future. As for the growth rate, here is a method to share, you can look at the forecast of the research report. Basically, the actual profit will be within the range of the highest and lowest predicted value in the research report, you can check by yourself.So, with current prices, there is some room, and the market will do the rest.This article is transferred from the wechat public account “Kongzunzhuoyue”. 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